{"id":4728,"date":"2024-07-29T12:32:27","date_gmt":"2024-07-29T14:32:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/allgrain.lt\/?p=4728"},"modified":"2024-07-29T12:32:27","modified_gmt":"2024-07-29T14:32:27","slug":"baltijos-saliu-grudu-derliaus-ir-ju-eksporto-prognozes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/allgrain.lt\/en\/baltijos-saliu-grudu-derliaus-ir-ju-eksporto-prognozes\/","title":{"rendered":"Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 derliaus ir j\u0173 eksporto prognoz\u0117s"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Lietuvi\u0173<\/a>. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.<\/p>

Javapj\u016bt\u0117 \u0161iemet prasid\u0117jo ma\u017edaug septyniomis \u2013 de\u0161im\u010dia dien\u0173 anks\u010diau nei \u012fprastai, o kai kurie \u016bkiai jau baigia nuimti \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 plotus. Saul\u0117ta ir \u0161ilta pirmoji vasaros pus\u0117 leid\u017eia tik\u0117tis netgi gausesnio nei pernai kvie\u010di\u0173 derliaus, \u017einoma, jei oras nepateiks siurpriz\u0173 ir pavyks j\u012f s\u0117kmingai nuimti. Pirmieji \u012f aruodus keliaujantys gr\u016bdai buvo sausi, nors ir \u0161iek tiek smulkesni bei \u017eemesnio baltymingumo negu 2023 met\u0173 derliaus. O kaip su kitomis kult\u016bromis? Kokio j\u0173 derliaus galima tik\u0117tis ir kaip seksis j\u012f eksportuoti? <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Apie tai kalb\u0117ta tradicin\u0117je Lietuvos gr\u016bd\u0173 perdirb\u0117j\u0173 ir prekybinink\u0173 asociacijos (LGPPA) vasaros konferencijoje. Beje, derliaus prognoz\u0117s aptartos prie\u0161 savaitgalio audr\u0105 ir li\u016btis, tad pastar\u0173j\u0173 dien\u0173 orai gali jas pakoreguoti.<\/p>\n

Tikimasi vieno i\u0161 did\u017eiausi\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 derliaus <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u201ePaskutiniais metais pas\u0117li\u0173 ploto augimas sustojo: stabilizavosi kvie\u010di\u0173 plotai ir d\u0117l s\u0117jomainos, pana\u0161u, jie nedid\u0117s, nesipl\u0117s ir raps\u0173 laukai. \u017dirni\u0173 ir pup\u0173, proteinais gausi\u0173 augal\u0173, kasmet s\u0117jama vis daugiau. Atsiranda vis modernesn\u0117 technika, leid\u017eianti labai greitai nuimti derli\u0173 ir pl\u0117sti ank\u0161tini\u0173 kult\u016br\u0173 plotus. \u0160iuolaikin\u0117s technikos j\u0117g\u0105 patvirtina ir girdima informacija, kad kai kuriuose \u016bkiuose \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 derli\u0173 jau baigiama nuimti\u201c, \u2013 bendr\u0173 tendencij\u0173 ap\u017evalga prad\u0117jo savo prane\u0161im\u0105 konferencijoje UAB \u201eSkovs Korn Baltic\u201c vadovas Dalius Keblikas.<\/p>\n

Pasak jo, \u0161iais metais tikimasi vieno did\u017eiausi\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 (kvie\u010di\u0173, mie\u017ei\u0173, kvietrugi\u0173, rugi\u0173, avi\u017e\u0173, raps\u0173, \u017eirni\u0173, pup\u0173) derliaus \u2013 bendrai Baltijos \u0161alyse jis gali siekti apie 13,5 mln. ton\u0173, ta\u010diau tiksliai derlius b\u016bna \u017einomas tik tada, kai jis pasiekia sand\u0117l\u012f, o orai paskutiniais metais \u2013 lemiamas faktorius ne tik vegetacijos metu, bet ir nuimant derli\u0173.<\/p>\n

Kokia situacija su atskiromis kult\u016bromis?<\/p>\n

\u201eKvie\u010di\u0173 Baltijos \u0161alyse gali b\u016bti prikulta apie 1 mln. ton\u0173 daugiau nei pernai, j\u0173 eksportas taip pat i\u0161augs ir prognozuojamas 6,5 mln. ton\u0173 eksportas gali pasirodyti realus. Pup\u0173 \u0161iemet u\u017es\u0117ta daugiau, tad galime tik\u0117tis ir didesnio derliaus, ir didesnio eksporto. T\u0105 pat\u012f galima pasakyti ir apie \u017eirnius. Taip pat prognozuojamas didesnis rugi\u0173, kvietrugi\u0173, mie\u017ei\u0173 derlius ir eksportas. Beje, pastar\u0173j\u0173 derlius ir eksportas augs tik Lietuvos s\u0105skaita. Didel\u012f netik\u0117tum\u0105 pateik\u0117 avi\u017eos ir j\u0173 plotai \u2013 galimas ir did\u017eiausias iki \u0161iol matytas j\u0173 eksportas \u2013 i\u0161 Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 jis gali vir\u0161yti ir 300 t\u016bkst. ton\u0173, kai paprastai siekdavo 150-170 t\u016bkst. ton\u0173. Tikimasi ir kur kas didesnio avi\u017e\u0173 derliaus: jei pernai jis buvo 459 t\u016bkst. ton\u0173, \u0161iemet laukiama 662 t\u016bkst. ton\u0173. \u017dinoma, tiek \u017eirniams, tiek avi\u017eoms taip pat\u00a0 svarbu, kokie orai bus nuimant derli\u0173, ar pavyks j\u012f nuimti be nuostoli\u0173. Raps\u0173 derlius, tikimasi, bus apie 1,34 mln. ton\u0173, planuojama i\u0161ve\u017eti apie 800 t\u016bkst. ton\u0173\u201c, \u2013 aptar\u0117 situacij\u0105 UAB \u201eSkovs Korn Baltic\u201c vadovas.<\/p>\n

Pagrindin\u0117 kvie\u010di\u0173 eksporto rinka Nigerija, netik\u0117ta konkurent\u0117 \u2013 Rumunija <\/strong><\/p>\n

Derliaus tikim\u0117s gausaus, kaip seksis j\u012f eksportuoti, kokios perspektyvos?<\/p>\n

\u201ePagrindin\u0117s Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 rinkos 2023-2024 metais tur\u0117t\u0173 i\u0161likti pana\u0161ios kaip ir anks\u010diau: Nigerija, Piet\u0173 Afrika, Ispanija, Marokas, Angola, Kamer\u016bnas ir kitos Vakar\u0173 Afrikos \u0161alys. D\u017eiugina tai, kad per pastaruosius dvejus metus \u0161ali\u0173, \u012f kurias eksportuojame Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 kvie\u010dius, skai\u010dius i\u0161augo nuo 25\/27 iki 35\/37. Anks\u010diau buvusi\u0105 populiari\u0105 krypt\u012f \u2013 Saudo Arabij\u0105 \u2013 praradome ir prie jos jau grei\u010diausiai negr\u012f\u0161ime, eksportas \u012f Nigerij\u0105 tur\u0117t\u0173 i\u0161likti pana\u0161us. Ar jis kiek gal\u0117t\u0173 augti? Abejoju. Piet\u0173 Afrikos rinka taip pat tur\u0117t\u0173 i\u0161likti stabili, nes jiems n\u0117ra patraukl\u016bs rusi\u0161ki gr\u016bdai. \u012e Ispanij\u0105 eksportas gali kiek suma\u017e\u0117ti, nes \u0161iemet \u0161ioje \u0161alyje labai geras gr\u016bd\u0173 derlius. Marokui svarbiau kvie\u010di\u0173 kaina nei j\u0173 kokyb\u0117, baltym\u0173 kiekis\u201c, \u2013 trumpai pakomentavo skirting\u0173 rink\u0173 perspektyvas D. Keblikas.<\/p>\n

Pasak jo, viena i\u0161 rimt\u0173 konkuren\u010di\u0173 Lietuvai dabar gali b\u016bti Rumunija, kurioje \u0161iemet u\u017eder\u0117jo labai geros kokyb\u0117s (12,7-13 proc. baltym\u0173) kvie\u010diai, kurie gal\u0117t\u0173 sudominti ir Vakar\u0173 Afrikos \u0161alis. Konkurente i\u0161lieka ir Rusija, kurios 12,5 proc. baltymo kvie\u010diai apie 15\/20 JAV dol.\/tona pigesni nei Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173. Konkurencij\u0105 sunkina ir tebesit\u0119siantis\u00a0 rusi\u0161k\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 (ypa\u010d kvie\u010di\u0173) tranzitas per Latvij\u0105.<\/p>\n

\u201eKvie\u010di\u0173 kaina ir toliau labiausiai priklausys nuo fond\u0173 nuotaik\u0173 ir j\u0173 noro pirkti\u00a0 kvie\u010dius, kukur\u016bzus, rapsus, sojos pupeles ir j\u0173 produktus. \u017dinoma, svarbus ir kit\u0173 pagrindini\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 eksportuotoj\u0173 (Australijos, Argentinos, JAV, Brazilijos, Rusijos ir, ai\u0161ku, Europos S\u0105jungos) derlius. Kol kas fondai labiau link\u0119 parduoti, tod\u0117l kaina stipriai nukritusi lyginant su buvusiomis prie\u0161 ger\u0105 m\u0117nes\u012f, nors fundamental\u016bs dalykai: pasi\u016bla, suvartojimas, atsargos (bent jau kvie\u010di\u0173 ir mie\u017ei\u0173) \u2013 rodo, kad tam kain\u0173 ma\u017e\u0117jimui ir n\u0117ra pagrindo. Ta\u010diau bendras agro produkt\u0173 kompleksas \u2013 kukur\u016bzai ir ypa\u010d sojos pupel\u0117s \u2013 yra vis dar su pertekliaus tendencija\u201c, \u2013 sak\u0117 UAB \u201eSkovs Korn Baltic\u201c vadovas.<\/p>\n

Gamini\u0173 kokyb\u0117 ir toliau i\u0161lieka gera <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/strong>Dar viena tradicija kasmetin\u0117je LGPPA konferencijoje \u2013 aptarti lietuvi\u0161k\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 derliaus kokyb\u0119, jo \u012ftak\u0105 galutiniam gaminiui. Jau tre\u010dius met\u0173 i\u0161 eil\u0117s LGPPA iniciatyva tiriamos Asociacijos nari\u0173 atrinktos \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 veisl\u0117s.\u00a0 LGPPA prezidentas Karolis \u0160imas\u00a0 pristat\u0117 rezultatus tyrimo, kuriuo buvo tirta dvide\u0161imt kvie\u010di\u0173 veisli\u0173 \u2013 a\u0161tuonios i\u0161 j\u0173 augintos ir pernai, ir u\u017epernai (\u0161iemetinio derliaus rezultatai bus kitais metais), dvylika \u2013 skirting\u0173.\u00a0 Visos jos augintos identi\u0161komis s\u0105lygomis, ir finale i\u0161 vis\u0173 i\u0161kepta duona. 2022 ir 2023 metais i\u0161augint\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 derlingumas skyr\u0117si atitinkamai: 8,5 ir 10,5 ton\u0173\/ha.<\/p>\n

Tyrimai atlikti Pranc\u016bzijos laboratorijose, vertinti visi i\u0161 tirt\u0173 \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 veisli\u0173 sumalt\u0173 milt\u0173 \u00a0kepimo savybi\u0173 rodikliai. Buvo tiriami ne tik \u012fprasti pagal lietuvi\u0161kus standartus rodikliai \u2013 tokie kaip kvie\u010dio baltymai ar glitimas, bet ir tai, kiek vandens sugeba \u012fgerti miltai, kokio elastingumo te\u0161la susidaro, kaip atrodo i\u0161kep\u0119s duonos gaminys, ar jisai teisingai i\u0161kil\u0119s ir vienodai akytas, ir visos kitos kepimo savyb\u0117s.<\/p>\n

Nors 2022 metais tur\u0117jome problem\u0173 su smulkiais gr\u016bdais, o 2023 met\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 baltym\u0173 ir glitimo procentas buvo ma\u017eesnis, nepaisant skirting\u0173 met\u0173 i\u0161\u0161\u016bki\u0173, duonos kokyb\u0117 parod\u0117, kad did\u017eioji dalis Lietuvoje auginam\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 veisli\u0173 i\u0161laiko pakankamai ger\u0105 gaminio kokyb\u0119. Yra tik kelios veisl\u0117s, ma\u017eiau tinkan\u010dios duonos gaminiams.<\/p>\n

Tod\u0117l svarbu, kad \u017dem\u0117s \u016bkio ministerija u\u017etikrint\u0173 veisli\u0173 deklaravim\u0105 ir gal\u0117tume matyti, kur ir koki\u0173 veisli\u0173 Lietuvoje auginama. Nes dabar LGPPA tiria, kurios veisl\u0117s geros, bet apie 50 proc. kvie\u010di\u0173 pas\u0117li\u0173 veisl\u0117s n\u0117ra deklaruojamos, tai neleid\u017eia mums kaip \u0161aliai garantuoti kokyb\u0117s.<\/p>\n

Ateityje LGPPA planuoja daryti ir \u012fdomesnius tyrimus, patikrinti, kaip skiriasi kokyb\u0117 duonos, i\u0161keptos i\u0161 sertifikuot\u0173 ir daug met\u0173 naudojam\u0173 tos pa\u010dios s\u0117klos (keli\u0173 ats\u0117li\u0173) kvie\u010di\u0173.<\/p>\n

Taip pat tame pa\u010diame tyrime nor\u0117sime palyginti lietuvi\u0161k\u0105 duon\u0105 su i\u0161kepta i\u0161 m\u016bs\u0173 konkurent\u0173 \u2013 lenk\u0173, rumun\u0173, rus\u0173 ir kit\u0173 \u0161ali\u0173 \u2013 kvie\u010di\u0173.<\/p>\n

Nuotraukoje \u2013 LGPPA prezidentas K. \u0160imas. <\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sorry, this entry is only available in Lietuvi\u0173. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Javapj\u016bt\u0117 \u0161iemet prasid\u0117jo ma\u017edaug septyniomis \u2013 de\u0161im\u010dia dien\u0173 anks\u010diau nei \u012fprastai, o kai kurie \u016bkiai jau baigia nuimti \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 plotus. Saul\u0117ta ir […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":4729,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4728","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-cloud"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/allgrain.lt\/baltijos-saliu-grudu-derliaus-ir-ju-eksporto-prognozes\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"[:lt]Baltijos \u0161ali\u0173 gr\u016bd\u0173 derliaus ir j\u0173 eksporto prognoz\u0117s[:] | AllGrain\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Sorry, this entry is only available in Lietuvi\u0173. For the sake of viewer convenience, the content is shown below in the alternative language. You may click the link to switch the active language.Javapj\u016bt\u0117 \u0161iemet prasid\u0117jo ma\u017edaug septyniomis \u2013 de\u0161im\u010dia dien\u0173 anks\u010diau nei \u012fprastai, o kai kurie \u016bkiai jau baigia nuimti \u017eiemini\u0173 kvie\u010di\u0173 plotus. 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